Coverage of the redistricting battles playing out across the United States has garnered widespread attention in the last year, as states from California to Texas to North Carolina have drawn new congressional district maps to favor the state legislature’s majority party. Much of the recent coverage on redistricting has tracked the battle for control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections.
Very little, however, has been written about the reactions of members of Congress whose districts have been redrawn.
How have members of the current Congress reacted when their seats are redrawn? Have they chosen to run for re-election anyway? Have they retired, or run in another district?
Here, I focus on districts where the partisan advantage of a district changed from one party to the other. Put another way, I examine the seats that moved from “Likely” or “Safe” Republican to “Likely” or “Safe” Democrat (or vice versa).
Where Redistricting Currently Stands Across the States
The Cook Political Report has kept close tabs on states that have already signed new maps into law. Table 1 presents the nine states that have redrawn their congressional maps, how those maps were redrawn, and how the new maps are expected to advantage one party or the other.
| State | Map Status | Likely Partisan Advantage |
|---|---|---|
| California (CA) | Enacted through referendum. | Democrats net 3–5 seats. |
| Texas (TX) | Signed into law. | Republicans net 3–5 seats. |
| Florida (FL) | Signed into law. | Republicans net 1–4 seats. |
| North Carolina (NC) | State legislature enacted map. | Republicans net 0–1 seats. |
| Missouri (MO) | Signed into law. | Republicans net 1 seat. |
| Ohio (OH) | Commission enacted map. | Republicans net 0–2 seats. |
| Alabama (AL) | 2023 map ruled lawful. | Republicans net 1 seat. |
| Tennessee (TN) | Signed into law. | Republicans net 1 seat. |
| Utah (UT) | Court-order enacted map. | Democrats net 1 seat. |
Sources: The Cook Political Report, Ballotpedia, and Politico.
As redistricting currently stands across these nine states, Democrats are likely to net anywhere between four and six new House seats across two states, while Republicans are expected to net anywhere between seven and 16 new House seats across seven states.
Who Represents These Redrawn Districts?
There are currently 20 districts across these nine states that have been redrawn to favor the party opposite the incumbent’s party currently in office. In other words, each seat currently held by a Democrat has been redrawn to favor Republicans in the new maps, and each seat currently held by a Republican (or Independent caucusing with the Republicans) has been redrawn to favor Democrats in the new maps. Table 2 presents a list of these new, redrawn districts in the nine states, as well as the representative (and their party) that currently represents each district.
| State/District | Current Representative/Party |
|---|---|
| CA-1 | Vacant |
| CA-3 | Kevin Kiley (I) |
| CA-41 | Ken Calvert (R) |
| CA-48 | Darrell Issa (R) |
| TX-9 | Al Green (D) |
| TX-28 | Henry Cuellar (D) |
| TX-32 | Julie Johnson (D) |
| TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez Jr. (D) |
| TX-35 | Greg Casar (D) |
| FL-9 | Darren Soto (D) |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor (D) |
| FL-23 | Jared Moskowitz (D) |
| FL-25 | Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D) |
| NC-1 | Don Davis (D) |
| MO-5 | Emanuel Cleaver (D) |
| OH-1 | Greg Landsman (D) |
| OH-9 | Marcy Kaptur (D) |
| AL-2 | Shomari Figures (D) |
| TN-9 | Steve Cohen (D) |
| UT-1 | Blake Moore (R) |
Sources: Ballotpedia (CA, TX, NC, MO, OH, AL, TN, UT), The New York Times, CNN, and NPR).
How Have These Legislators Reacted?
Members’ reactions to redistricting have been remarkably consistent, regardless of party: most of them are running for re-election to Congress, with many exploring options to run in new districts that favor their party more.
All three redrawn Republicans in California—Kiley, Calvert, and Izza—are pursuing reelection. Kiley is still weighing his options as to which district to run in and even changed his party affiliation from Republican to Independent to have a better chance to win in his redrawn district in November. Calvert will run in the state’s 40th congressional district (pitting him against the district’s incumbent representative, Young Kim, in a primary later this year). Izza briefly considered moving to Texas—at the beckoning of his House colleagues there—to fill new Republican seats created by the state’s own redrawn maps. Izza has since said he will not move but stay in California and try to keep his seat.
In Texas, all at-risk Democrats—Green, Johnson, Gonzalez, Casar, and Cuellar—are also running again. Green is not running in his original district (TX-9) but rather in the state’s 18th congressional district, where he has advanced to a runoff against the district’s incumbent representative, Christian Menefee. Johnson is contesting former Congressman Collin Allred (whom Johnson succeeded in the House) in a primary battle for the House seat in Texas’s newly drawn 33rd congressional district (representing Dallas). Casar and Gonzalez are both running for re-election.
All four redistricted Democrats in Florida—Soto, Castor, Moskowitz, and Wasserman-Schultz—have said they plan to run for re-election. Of those four, Soto is the only one definitively planning to run in his current district (FL-9) while the other three are exploring options to run in districts more favorable to Democrats. For example, Wasserman-Schultz, whose current district (FL-25) is anchored in Broward and Miami-Dade counties, is exploring a run in the nearby 20th district, a more safely Democratic seat vacated by the resignation of Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick earlier this term.
Davis (NC-1), Kaptur (OH-9), and Cleaver (MO-5) are also running again in their current districts. Figures (AL-2) is also seeking re-election and figuring out which district to run in after his boundaries were redrawn.
Only one representative has chosen to retire. Steve Cohen, a long-serving Democrat representing Tennessee’s 9th congressional district, anchored by Memphis, announced his retirement from Congress after the new maps carving up his district were signed into law.
Another noteworthy insight is how similar the rhetoric from both Democratic and Republican members of Congress holding these redistricted seats has been. Both sides claim the process is unfair and silences political voices.
Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO) stated the new maps “will silence voices,” “deny representation,” and “tell the people of Missouri that their lawmakers no longer wish to earn their vote, that elections are predetermined by the power brokers in Washington, and that politicians—not the people—will decide the outcome.” Darrell Issa (R-CA) noted that “it was difficult to watch as Gavin Newsom and Sacramento’s special interests set about shredding the state constitution, disenfranchising millions of Californians solely because of how they vote, and delivering what they know is an undeserved advantage to Democrats.”
Conclusion
It was 52 years ago that political scientist David Mayhew hypothesized that members of Congress were “single-minded seekers of re-election.” Even today, despite both parties redrawing congressional maps across the United States in recent months, members from both sides of the aisle whose jobs are at risk are not backing down and are fighting to be re-elected, just as Mayhew predicted.
In a political environment where parties rarely see eye to eye, the actions these redistricted members have taken are remarkably consistent across party lines. The vast majority are seeking to stay in their seats and will run again, with several stating that the process dispenses political power away from certain groups and constituents. While mid-decade congressional redistricting has not been the norm in American politics, it is clear that new district lines—even those remarkably unfavorable to their party—are not changing the ambitions of current members to seek re-election.
John C. Paschold is a second-year Ph.D. student in political science at Vanderbilt University, where he studies American political institutions, political parties, and polarization.
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